This is one of those concepts that makes professionals scratch their heads. I was a victim of it myself. During my initial days ofPMP exam preparation,我很难理解应急计划与后备计划之间的区别。
I used to think that the contingency plan was used to manage identified risks and the fallback plan was for unidentified risks. This was wrong. Contingency and fallback plans help manage identified risks.
但是,由于这两个计划都用于管理风险,因此您可能想知道,如果出现任何已确定的风险,则应遵循哪些风险?
由于我已经通过了PMP和PMI-RMP考试并很好地理解了这些概念,因此我正在撰写此博客文章,并希望阅读它后,您将能够区分意外情况和后备计划。
应急方案
Merriam-Webster defines the term “contingency” as “an event that may but is not certain to occur.”
偶然性是可能发生也可能不会发生的事件。因此,我们可以说,应急计划涉及可能发生或可能不会发生的事件。
应急计划是项目管理计划的一部分;它描述了如果发生任何确定的风险,您将采取的每项操作。
让我们看一个现实世界中的现实示例。
一个现实世界的示例
您正在进行一个建设项目,并且有可能在执行过程中降雨可能会降低,这会损害公开露面的任何消耗品。
因此,您制定了一个计划,说:“如果有降雨的迹象,所有消耗品将覆盖有塑料板。”您还补充说,雨水停止后,您将带风扇/真空泵清洁并干燥湿的消耗品。
This is a contingency plan for this risk event.
您可以在Internet上找到可能与您不同的互联网计划的许多定义,但它们可能是单独正确的。
Below are two different explanations of the contingency plan.
- Contingency plans are the plans that describe the specific actions that will be taken if an opportunity or a threat occurs.
- 如果有足够的警告信号(风险触发),将执行应急响应策略。
If you examine these definitions, you will find that they are not different, just phrased differently.
后备计划
The fallback plan is a part of the project management plan and defines under which circumstances action has to be taken.
当应急计划失败或不完全有效时,实施了后备计划。这是应急计划的备份。您可以说,后备计划通常是出于剩余风险而制定的。
一个现实世界的示例
让我们重新考虑上面给出的示例。
Suppose the rain continued to fall for a very long time, longer than expected, which causes damage to the consumables.
在这种情况下,您将实施您的后备计划。它说,如果降雨继续下降了很长时间,导致消耗品损坏并且应急计划失败,您将重新订购预先识别的供应商的消耗品。
这是后备计划的一个例子。
Before I go any further, let me share another example from my own experience.
我正在使用第三方备份服务为博客保存数据。我可以使用此备份,以防我的网站崩溃和我的hosting provider没有任何备份。
This is my contingency plan.
Now, what would happen if my site got hacked, and at the same time my third-party backup service also went out of business? How would I restore my blog?
这是我的后备计划发挥作用的地方。为了使自己免于这样的灾难,我总是将博客的最新副本保留在计算机和Google驱动器上。
现在,如果我的博客被黑客入侵,甚至第三方服务失败了,我可以从存储在计算机或在线存储上的备份中还原博客。
The Difference Between the Contingency Plan and Fallback Plan
应急计划与后备计划之间没有区别;他们互相补充。仅当应急计划失败时,后备计划才能使用。
Similarities Between the Contingency Plan and Fallback Plan
这两个计划之间的相似之处如下:
- 这两个计划都被称为风险响应。
- 这两种计划均用于管理确定的风险。
- 这两种计划都利用应急储备进行实施。
Summary
The contingency and fallback plans are the backbone of yourrisk management planthat helps you manage identified risks. You will implement the contingency plan if any identified risk occurs, and when the contingency plan fails or seem ineffective, you will implement the fallback plan.
您将使用应急储备应用应急计划或后备计划,而不是管理储备,因为应急储备用于确定的风险。管理储备用于管理身份不明的风险。
我希望现在您了解这些术语。但是,如果您仍然有麻烦,请在下面发表评论。我准备讨论。
从PMP和PMI-RMP考试的角度来看,应急计划和后备计划非常重要,因此请务必很好地理解此主题。
项目经理发现已经发生了项目问题。在风险计划活动中从未讨论过该问题,或者将其添加到风险登记册中,现在将花费项目钱。对于这种情况,这将是适当的回应?
Since this risk was not identified, the project manager will manage it through a workaround.
我不确定PMBOK术语,但这是从逻辑角度来看,这是我对风险响应计划的看法。
Once you have identified all of the risks you (and your team) can think of:
1.如果您可以通过以不同的方式实现任务目标来消除风险的方式来重新配置项目任务,而无需负面影响时间表,预算,范围或质量,则可以进行更改并避免风险。
2.If you can outsource the risky task to another organization, shifting responsibility for the risk to them, you can TRANSFER the risk.
3. If you can augment your project plan in such a way to lessen either the probability or impact of the risk to a more acceptable level, then you can MITIGATE the risk. In this case, you are developing and implementing a MITIGATION PLAN, which becomes part of the baseline project, and for which you are proactively accepting the associated costs and budget impacts into the project. You are committing to paying for this.
4. If the proactive changes are not feasible (cost or schedule impact is too high to accept as is), you can develop a CONTINGENCY PLAN which will be implemented only if the trigger event occurs. This contingency plan becomes part of the approved project baseline, and associated budget is placed in the CONTINGENCY RESERVE. You ACCEPT the risk, but you may not have to pay for it if the trigger event never occurs. You might also create contingency plans for secondary or residual risks which could occur in the event of failure of the primary contingency plans, and allocate additional budget to the contingency reserve in case their trigger events also occur. These secondary contingency plans could be thought of as FALLBACK PLANS.
Your approved project baseline allows for all of the above, and anything you do up to here generally would not require a scope change or additional approval. This covers all of the KNOWN-KNOWNS and the KNOWN-UNKNOWNS.
现在,如果您没有预料到其他事情,则可以将其放置在其余两个类别之一中:
1.一个未知的是您应该能够在项目中识别出来的事情,但是您以某种方式没有将其包括在计划中。通常,这将被视为计划错误,因为熟练的项目经理会意识到必须将其包括在项目计划中。
2.一个未知的未知是可能的职业r during the project execution, but that you had no reasonable expectation to identify as a risk. If it occurs, it would be difficult to place blame on the project plan, and instead most would consider this an unfortunate unforeseen circumstance.
为了限制对项目的影响,您必须具有反应性并实施解决方法,要求批准示波器更改,然后从管理储备中获取。您可能还可以使用管理储备对以前已确定但有意保存在观察列表中的低风险事件做出反应。
就像我说的那样,我不确定这与PMBOK说话的配合程度如何,但是我发现它是处理实际项目管理情况的非常合乎逻辑的框架。
Known-Unknown are identified risk for which you have to develop the contingency plan.
The Unknown- Known, and Unknown-Unknown shall be managed through the workaround.
不客气的法哈德。我有一个快速的问题。如果我们想调用连续性储备,我们是否需要打开更改请求?(我知道我们需要它来管理管理储备)。
Also, If we need to implement the work around because something unforeseen occurred and we did not have any response strategy against it – OR – our plan B failed as well – do we need to invoke the CR? I think answer to this is “yes”, but need to confirm. What are your thoughts in these 2 scenarios? Thanks.
在首先,您不会提出更改请求。您将使用应急储备,并且不需要更改请求,因为任何基线,范围或项目计划都没有更改。
在第二种情况下,理想情况下,如果发生任何不可预见的事件,则应使用管理储备。
Thanks.
我不同意第一点。应该启动CR,因为一旦使用了应急储备,成本基线就会发生变化。我们可能不得不添加更多的应急基金以进行进一步的风险 /保持它。但是,必须进行CR分析。
有适当的尊重。
Do i need to issue a change request to utilise Contingency reseres?
Do i need to issue a change request after utilising the contingency reserves to reflect the update to the cost baseline?
Do i need to issue a change request to implement contingency plan?
1)否
2) No
3) No
嗨,法哈德,
您可以根据项目宪章中的风险进行3点估算(时间和成本),因此您可能会发现一些额外的风险。
These risk along with the ones identified during project initiation are dealt with risk management.
在风险管理期间,您会准备风险反应,但是即使在风险响应计划计划之后,仍然存在一些残留风险。
Now my question is, we keep contingency reserve to “cover cost for risk response that we created” or for the “residual risk remaining that remains after risk response planning” or for both.
Regards,
Shoeb.
您将分析剩余风险。如果需要进一步的计划,您将继续进行,其他明智的选择只需保留观察列表以进行将来的监视。
有一些较低的优先风险将被推入风险登记列表中。当这些风险发生时,将使用什么储备?应急或管理储备?
As per the PMBOK 5th edition page: 332,
“Threats found in low-risk zone may not require proactive management action beyond being placed in the risk register as a part of watch list or adding a contingency reserve”.
在您的风险管理/响应计划中,您必须决定如何管理低优先级风险。如果您不保留应急储备,则必须使用管理储备。
But I dont agree with you. We are reading in the PMBOK about Accept strategy: “This strategy can be either passive or active. Passive acceptance requires no action except to document the strategy, leaving the project team to deal with the risks as they occur. The most common active acceptance strategy is to establish a contingency reserve, including amounts of time, money, or resources to handle the risks.”
因此,请在上述段落中将“化学”放在问题的情况下。项目经理购买15%的额外资源来应对风险。他想把它作为储备,如果有些化学物质丢失了15个?将会被使用。这是一个积极的接受。
这意味着您说除了被动接受以外的所有策略都将“减轻”,因为它们正在降低潜在的负面影响或风险概率。
do you agree?
在接受策略(主动)中,您无需采取任何措施来降低风险的可能性。除非发生风险,否则您不会采取任何行动,尽管您为其分配了应急资源。
You deal with it if it occurs.
在缓解时,您会尝试减少风险发生的可能性。
阅读后,这篇文章在风险响应和应急计划之间有点混淆。现在对我来说两者都一样,但是它真的相同还是有什么区别?请让我知道,应急计划是否与风险响应更为相同。
Kindly clarify.
应急方案is a Risk Response Plan. When a Risk occurs, you'll implement the contingencyplan.And if the contingency plan fails, you'll implement the Fallback Plan. Fallback Plan is also a risk response plan but it is implemented when contingency plan fails.Contingency and Fallback Plans – both are the risk response plan.Hope it clears your doubt.Sent from my iPhone