风险s are commonly assumed to be the same as uncertainty in the area of风险管理. Although there is a big difference between risk and uncertainty, many professionals often think they are the same.
Although this concept is not too important from a PMP or PMI-RMP exam point of view, you must understand the difference to avoid mixing them up.
Therefore, I’m writing this blog post to explain it and I hope after reading it, you won’t have any problems distinguishing between risk and uncertainty.
风险
A risk is an unplanned event that may affect one or some ofyour projectobjectives if it occurs. The risk is positive if it affects your project positively, and it is negative if it affects the project negatively.
There are separate risk response strategies for negatives and positives.
The objective of anegative risk response strategyis to minimize their impact or probability, while the objective of a正风险反应策略is to maximize the chance or impact.
You might also hear two more risk terms: known and unknown. Known risks are identified during the identify risks process and unknown risks are those you couldn’t identify.
Acontingency planis made for known risks, and you will use the contingency reserve to manage them. On the other hand, unknown risks are managed through aworkaroundusing themanagement reserve.
Uncertainty
不确定性是缺乏完全确定性。在不确定的情况下，任何事件的结果都是完全未知的，并且不能衡量或猜测。您没有有关活动的任何背景信息。
Uncertainty is not an unknown risk.
In uncertainty, you completely lack the background information of an event, even though it has been identified. In the case of unknown risk, although you have the background information, you missed it during the identify risks process.
A Real-World Example of Risk and Uncertainty
Assume two famous teams consist of renowned players, and they are going to play a football match the next day.
Can you tell me exactly which team is going to win?
不，你不能；但是，您可以通过审查和分析每个球员，团队以及他们相互对抗的比赛结果的过去表现来进行良好的猜测。
Then you can come up with some numbers like there is a 30% chance of Team A or Team B winning, or there is a 70% possibility of Team A or Team B losing the match.
现在，让我们在不同的情况下进行相同的足球比赛。
Let us say again that two teams are going to play a game, and no players are selected for either team.
在这种情况下，如果有人问您要赢得哪支球队，您的回应将是什么？
You will be clueless because you don’t know which team consists of which players, and you have no idea how the teams will perform.
Here, you don’t have any information on past performance, and cannot predict the outcome of the event, even though the rules and the stadium are the same.
This situation is called uncertainty.
风险Vs Uncertainty
The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:
- 在风险下，您可以预测未来结果的可能性，而在不确定性下，您不能。
- 风险s can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
- 可以测量和量化风险，而不确定性则不能。
- 您可以为风险事件分配概率，而不确定性则不能。
Conclusion
风险and uncertainty are different terms, but people tend to confuse them. Managing risks is easier because you can identify them and develop a response plan based on your experience. However, managing uncertainty is very difficult, as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.
However, to complete your project successfully, you must be very cautious, proactive, and open-minded to manage risks and uncertainty.
这就是风险和不确定性的帖子结束。我何pe now you can distinguish uncertainty from risk. Still have some doubts, post them in the comments section and I will reply to you.
Why are some risk insurance and some are not?
If you can not manage risk on your own, you insure it. If you can manage the risk, you will develop a risk response plan.
Hi. Ibhave been reading on these two concepts but things are not so clear. With your explanation it tends to be a little bit clear but I would like you to give a practical example in agriculture to make the différenciation between the two concepts.
您好阿迪卡斯（Adikath），在不确定的情况下，您缺乏背景信息。我相信这篇文章中给出的示例足以实现基本理解，
by identifies risk and I must proactive to the uncertainty event by doing this my project will be successfully doing.
You should be proactive in risk management. It will surely help you complete your project successfully.
广泛地同意您所说的话。在足球示例中，除了您的数学错误是错误的40+70 = 110，这是不可能的。您要说的是，如果您不认识团队，则无法预测结果。
但在这个例子中你可以预测成为可能outcomes, team a win, team b wins or it’s a draw. As with all uncertainty you can bound it. I can’t think of anything you can’t bound. Therefore your conclusion you can’t know is wrong.
正如其他人所说的那样，一旦您可以建模，就可以预测最可能的结果。
Sorry for the error. It is corrected.
谢谢。
The cone of uncertainty reduces as the project progress, right? PESTLE factor analysis is used to identify possible uncertainties. Does PMI PMBOK recommend to use pestle for managing uncertainty? I think not. Does PMI standards for programme or portfolio management recommend using pestle analysis for managing uncertainty or overall project risk?
Hi, Di you agree that project uncertainty management corresponds to overall project risk management in PMBOK?
嗨，大家好，您是否同意不确定性管理涉及在杵因素分析或SWOT内部分析方面进行外部扫描？
You are welcome Dan.
Great, thanks for differentiating risks and uncertainty, I was actually searching for the relationship and difference between identifiable risks and unmeasurable uncertainty,. It was satisfactory.
Dan
It really helpful. Thank you
不客气，埃迪。
Fahad i have an innocent question. if uncertainty is not measurable not predictable and can,t be minimized at the same time, then why even we keep studying it(uncertainty) and getting ourselves confused between these two rival
Fahad i have an innocent question. if uncertainty is not measurable not predictable and can,t be minimized at the same time, then why even we keep studying it(uncertainty) and getting ourselves confused between these two rivals.
Hello Fahad (PMP, PMI-RMP),
I am really grateful to you for helping me out to understand the topics in simpler way.
Thanks and Regards,
Mehul
You are welcome Mehul.
Mathematically
风险= an uncertain event if occurs can impact the outcome of event in a positive or negative direction
So it has two parts
风险= Probability * impact
Now under probability theory an event can occur in three ways
1) It will happen ( a certain event) prob = 1, impact you can input based on your findings to find Risk
2) It may occur ( a probable event, however small it could be, those who talk about unknown unknowns or uncertainties all fall here) the probability could be infinitesimal or we just ignore it as It’s not worth * impact = get the risk value .
3）不会发生（不可能发生的事件，零概率） *影响=无关的风险。
外面没有什么。这些不确定性甚至我们可能不会想到或想象也将属于它，但只担心可能影响我们项目的主要可能事件。
Your life has millions of variables all uncertain, even lightening striking us may have a probability, but we don’t really consider it Day to Day risk, but those who are not so lucky and it get struck , despite infinitesimal probability they loose.
每个事件是否已知和未知事件都有发生的概率，并且总计1。
Now you choose what your sample space is?
Well said Vinod.
Hi Fahad,
How do I reference you if I want to use a statement from this page?
You can mention me as M. Fahad Usmani, PMP, PMI-RMP
Thank you for sharing. It’s really helpful, understand the concept clearly.
欢迎您。
Hello Fahad, Thanks for the insight.
How do you manage a project under uncertainty?
I had to discuss this issue with my guru.
通过将其最小化来管理不确定性。
Uncertainty: Not having ANY idea of the probability of possible outcomes. The more we do to narrow the degree of uncertainty, the more we understand its probability and the likelihood of the relevant risk event impacting us!
如何？通过研究来管理它。历史是什么？它影响了我们多少次？影响有多严重？
Fahad, this article is great. Explained the difference really well. Thanks.
You are welcome Mridul.
Help,i was asked the difference in risk management and quality management in an interview for a health institution manager
Please refer to the Risk management and quality management knowledge area of the PMBOK Guide. Both are different.
I’m sorry, I disagree with the basic definitions you are using. To begin with, uncertainty is an umbrella term to define any known or unknown event or series of events. It encompasses Allowances, Contingency and Risks. Allowances are “known-knowns” whose exact value is not known at the time but whose expenditure is certain to occur. Hence an amount is assigned to this particular cost, and later revisited when additional information becomes available. Contingencies are “known-unknowns,” within the defined project scope. It is a specific provision for unforeseeable elements of cost within the defined project scope, particularly important where previous experience relating estimates and actual costs has shown that unforeseeable events that increase costs are likely to occur (AACEI). Contingency event estimates are made based on experienced judgment from subject matter experts (SMEs)on that estimate. Risks are the “unknown-unknowns” whose probability of occurrence and cost impact is not certain. But even the unknown-unknowns can be estimated by SMEs, based on their experience using Monte Carlo computer models to estimate the probability of occurrence and an estimated value of the impact. The Risk Register is where the risks (or opportunities) are listed and discussed in a Risk Workshop of SMEs, and both qualitative and quantitative descriptions are assigned to each risk element. The risk elements are prioritized, and the SMEs then look for mitigation measures to reduce or eliminate each risk. The residual post-mitigation risks are then used as the basis for the Monte Carlo computer analysis. The analysis will return the calculation that there is a (say) 80% probability that the total cost of the risks will be less than $ X thousand, or other percentages and impact cost depending on the risk estimator’s (or management’s) risk appetite. This amount should be added to the Project Base Cost (which would include Allowances) and the Contingency, defined as the Project Baseline Cost, to arrive at the project funded (or budgeted) cost.
For a more complete treatise on Uncertainty which I co-authored, please read “Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities,” © OECD 2017, NEA No. 7344.
这些定义基于PMBOK指南第五版。bob手机客户端
Fahad的好尝试。
首先，根据您在哪个部门工作，以各种方式理解风险和不确定性。
How would you comment on ISO 31000 definition of risk that goes like” risk is the effect of uncertainty”.
And then COSO puts it differently, may be you can google it up.
感谢您的评论。
问候
没有研究它们。
Will you please help me answer this? In ISO 9000:2015, ”Risk is an effect of uncertainty”, my question is, why it was defined that way?
我没有研究它，所以无法对此发表评论。
Very useful,informative!!thankyou so much?
You are welcome Sreekala.
Good explanation
感谢Ramalingam。
除非你们已经决定，除非您已经决定项目管理的不确定性定义与其他人类努力（如科学，工程和医学）的定义不同，否则我建议阅读有关该主题的众多书籍中的一些。当然可以测量不确定性，并在严重的领域中使用，以分配结果将在定义范围内发生的概率。
Google uncertainty in science or uncertainty budget
I fear you may have got some of your info from the field of economics (which can make astrology and black magic look bad) ;)
Can you explain it little further:
当然可以测量不确定性，并在严重的领域中使用，以分配结果将在定义范围内发生的概率。
感谢您的所有要求，现在我明白了区别。
欢迎您。
Thanks Fahad, that’s wonderful explain.
You are welcome Mohammed.
Guys thanks very informative with simple real time examples.
You are welcome Vis.
welldone bro
I never knew I could understand this two dilemmatic variables but with your illustration, I grabbed it once, thanks so much
You are welcome Tolerant.
Thanks for sharing the ideas about risk and uncertainty. What Angel says is not different from your right and simple idea to make it clear. The difference is only in the statement but you both have presented the same difference eithet it is quntifiable or not which clears the fundamental difference between them. Thanks for making me more clear on the subject matter.
In uncertainty you completely lack the historical and pas information. The construction of a house or painting a wall does not fall in this category. Here you can estimate the cost will a good accuracy. Most of the times these contracts are given under fixed price or cost reimbursable.
In risk, you can guess the outcome but in uncertainty you can’t.
有人可以告诉我风险和不确定性的关系吗
风险can be said to be an uncertain event which chances of occurrence can be predicted and measured whereas, uncertainty can also be said to be an uncertain event which chances of occurrence cannot be predicted and measured. The difference is that the probability of a risk event happening can be predicted and measured while the probability of uncertainty cannot be predicted and measured.
Till today I didn’t clearly no the difference between a risk and uncertainty.
Hello Kheke, I am glad that it is clear to you now.
FAHAD
Can we say contingency plan dedicated for negative risk while management reserve dedicated for uncertain issues as we can’t guess their impacts?
This is a tricky question.
As per my understanding, since the uncertainty is a identified risk, you can passively accept the uncertainty and keep some contingency reserve based on educated guess.
I also request other visitors to share their thoughts on it.
风险: We don’t know what is going to happen next, but we do know what the distribution looks like.
不确定性：我们不知道接下来会发生什么，我们不知道可能的分布是什么样的。
Correct….
In my view uncertainty is imperfect knowledge. Throughout a project we strive to improve definition (reduce uncertainty) to improve chances of success (reduce risk of failure.) There are key uncertainties in projects that you must understand well before making strategic decisions.
成本估算是一个很好的例子，可以说明不确定性。很难（如果不是不可能）估计复杂项目的最终成本到最后一分钱。您还记得您在家里做了一份改建工作的最后发生了什么事吗？如果您不太了解不确定性，您可能最终会后悔自己重塑厨房的决定。这就是为什么您进行前端工作：制定范围，准备计划，获得报价等。这是为了减少不确定性。
不确定性分析有助于我们了解结果的预期范围和针对项目目标的测试范围，以做出明智的决定。例如，我们可以测试一个项目是否对各种成本增长方案有弹性，并做出明智的决定来制裁该项目。然后，我们可以表征风险或机会。
Sorry to add confusion but I agree fundamentally with Angel. .
Lets suppose we have to paint a wall in our kitchen.
最初（在计划阶段）我们不确定要使用的油漆量，但可以估计它是一个随机数
我们不确定绘画墙所花费的时间。
There is a risk that the plaster will fall apart in preparation.
有一个油漆将泡沫后的风险t has been applied.
Uncertainty is managed by research and by putting slack into a project
Negative Risk is managed by process improvement and recovery strategies.
Incidently you can have uncertainty about the likelihood of a risk event occuring :)
Hi Fahad,
Can you please help in providing details/difference of Perform Qualitative and Quantitative risk analysis?
谢谢，
Naveen
在定性风险分析,你优先考虑的risks by multiplying their probabilities and impact. And in Quantitative risk analysis, you numerically analyse the risks. Here, you find the cost of each risk (if it occurs individually) and then you add it up to get the overall effect on the project.
Thanks a lot !!!
Both risk and uncertainty are inevitable in today’s scenario of Project Management. one has to driven his path midway.
Yes, one has to chose the best path suitable to the project.
The football analogy is a good one and encapsulates today’s modern management attitude to uncertainty perfectly where uncertainty is just flagged as another risk, an unmeasured one, and thus can be ignored, if its recognised at all.
Thanks for visiting and sharing your thoughts.
I have been reading on this two concepts for a very long time but this analogy make it so clear
好的。