风险vs uncertainty

通常认为风险与该区域的不确定性相同风险管理. Although there is a big difference between risk and uncertainty, many professionals often think they are the same.

尽管从PMP或PMI-RMP考试的角度来看，这个概念并不重要，但您必须理解差异以避免混合它们。

Therefore, I’m writing this blog post to explain it and I hope after reading it, you won’t have any problems distinguishing between risk and uncertainty.

风险

A risk is an unplanned event that may affect one or some ofyour projectobjectives if it occurs. The risk is positive if it affects your project positively, and it is negative if it affects the project negatively.

负面的否定性和积极因素有单独的风险反应策略。

The objective of anegative risk response strategy是为了最大程度地减少其影响或概率，而正风险反应策略是最大化机会或影响。

You might also hear two more risk terms: known and unknown. Known risks are identified during the identify risks process and unknown risks are those you couldn’t identify.

A应急计划is made for known risks, and you will use the contingency reserve to manage them. On the other hand, unknown risks are managed through aworkaroundusing themanagement reserve.

Uncertainty

不确定性是缺乏完全确定性。在不确定的情况下，任何事件的结果都是完全未知的，并且不能衡量或猜测。您没有有关活动的任何背景信息。

不确定性不是未知的风险。

In uncertainty, you completely lack the background information of an event, even though it has been identified. In the case of unknown risk, although you have the background information, you missed it during the identify risks process.

A Real-World Example of Risk and Uncertainty

Assume two famous teams consist of renowned players, and they are going to play a football match the next day.

Can you tell me exactly which team is going to win?

不，你不能；但是，您可以通过审查和分析每个球员，团队以及他们相互对抗的比赛结果的过去表现来进行良好的猜测。

然后，您可以提出一些数字，例如A或B队赢得30％的机会，或者有70％的A或B团队输掉比赛的可能性。

现在，让我们在不同的情况下进行相同的足球比赛。

Let us say again that two teams are going to play a game, and no players are selected for either team.

在这种情况下，如果有人问您要赢得哪支球队，您的回应将是什么？

You will be clueless because you don’t know which team consists of which players, and you have no idea how the teams will perform.

Here, you don’t have any information on past performance, and cannot predict the outcome of the event, even though the rules and the stadium are the same.

这种情况称为不确定性。

风险Vs Uncertainty

以下是风险和不确定性之间的一些差异：

  • 在风险下，您可以预测未来结果的可能性，而在不确定性下，您不能。
  • 风险s can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • 可以测量和量化风险，而不确定性则不能。
  • 您可以为风险事件分配概率，而不确定性则不能。

Conclusion

风险and uncertainty are different terms, but people tend to confuse them. Managing risks is easier because you can identify them and develop a response plan based on your experience. However, managing uncertainty is very difficult, as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.

但是，要成功完成您的项目，您必须非常谨慎，积极主动且开放，以管理风险和不确定性。

这就是风险和不确定性的帖子结束。我何pe now you can distinguish uncertainty from risk. Still have some doubts, post them in the comments section and I will reply to you.