什么是灵敏度分析？Examples & Templates

Project managers are always involved with data analysis and decision-making. They must be conscious of the sensitivities in data and their impact on the project. To control for this, they use sensitivity analysis to determine the sensitivity of data variables in the project outcome.

In brief, sensitivity analysis examines project scenarios under different circumstances.

This article will discuss sensitivity analysis and its benefits, compare it to scenario analysis, and provide examples of how to use it appropriately.

什么是灵敏度分析？

Sensitivity analysis有助于确定一个输入的变化如何影响输出。项目经理发现此工具很有用，因为它使他们能够在不同条件下权衡收益和风险。

You can see which input has the most influence on the output. Based on this information, managers can then make a better informed decision.

The sensitivity analysis can be used in the following performance domains:

1. Planning performance
2. 项目工作表现
3. Delivery performance

In the sensitivity analysis process, you change one input (such as cost, time, or scope) and subsequently evaluate how the output changes. You can understand how inputs affect the outcomes by repeating the process for various inputs. After that, you may make changes to plans as needed.

Selecting the right inputs to evaluate changes while performing a sensitivity analysis is crucial. For example, in accounting, you may change the interest rate or the invested amount, but in project management, you may want to change the project’s duration or the resources needed.

重要的是要了解每个输入如何影响结果。例如，您需要知道改变项目的持续时间将如何影响其他元素（例如，milestones, deadlines, workloads, resource cost, etc.).

How Does Sensitivity Analysis Work?

Sensitivity analysis requires input and target variables. The fields within which you want to make changes are called input variables. The fields you want to measure the consequences of changing are the target variables.

You must develop scenarios based on your adjustments and observe changes. After that, you may use results to make choices about undertakings.

Other variables must remain constant to determine how a change in one variable may affect a result.

一个“如果分析”可以显示在目标变量上更改输入变量的效果。

It is important not to change more than one input variable at a time while conducting a sensitivity analysis. If you do so, you cannot identify which factors affect the result when making many changes at once. If required, you can test other variables later.

To conduct a sensitivity analysis, follow these steps.

• List the input variable that can affect the project outcome.
• Change one variable while keeping the other variables intact and note the impact of this change on the outcome.
• 重复所有其他变量的上述步骤。
• 根据影响的严重程度对变量进行排名。将最高影响变量保持在顶部，最低位置在底部。

Approaches for Applying Sensitivity Analysis

You can use two approaches to apply sensitivity analysis. These approaches are:

1. Direct Approach

In this method, you will directly change the numbers in a model’s assumption. For example, when using the direct technique, you may replace the growth rate with alternative values to determine the resulting revenue amounts.

For instance, the revenue calculation is as follows if your sales growth expectation is 20% annually:

(Last year’s revenue) x (1 + 20%)

2.间接方法

Instead of explicitly altering the value of an assumption, the indirect technique involves inserting a % change into calculations.

For instance, if you know that the revenue formula and your revenue growth estimate is 20% annually:

(Last year’s revenue) x (1 + 20%)

You alter the formula as follows:

（去年的收入）x（1 +（20％ + x）），其中x是模型灵敏度分析领域的值。

灵敏度分析的好处

The following are some advantages of sensitivity analysis:

#1. It Examines Many Scenarios

This approach provides probable outcomes in the event of change. Management can easily comprehend the effects and makecontingency plans。它将根据效果预测结果，当变量变化时可能发生。

＃2。增强的管理判断

Sensitivity analysis provides a wide range of potential outcomes that might occur due to changes in a variable. The business will be in a much better position to make decisions after considering all available information.

#3. Effective Resource Management

灵敏度分析可以帮助确保资源distribution is optimal. The business must keep a secure space. Moreover, it should enhance its resources in areas where it lags considerably behind its rivals.

＃4。突出显示改进的领域

Sensitivity analysis aids decision-makers in determining where they can make modifications.

#5. Provides a Higher Level of Credibility

通过将财务模型与广泛的潜在结果进行测试，灵敏度分析增加了他们的可信度。

Sensitivity Analysis Disadvantages

1. Since variables often depend on each another, it is impossible to analyze them separately. For instance, a change in selling price will result in a change in sales volume.
2. 该分析基于历史数据和经验，这在将来可能无关紧要。
3. 确定最高和最低价值取决于决策者的解释和风险偏好。错误的选择会影响分析的准确性。
4. 这既不是风险测量方法，也不是降低风险的方法。它不会导致更透明的决策过程。该信息必须正确解释。
5. All factors in real life are liable to change. A simulation is a good option if you want to evaluate several variables simultaneously.
6. 灵敏度分析仅揭示了更改变量的后果。这并不表示发生这些变化的可能性。
7. Sensitivity analysis will reveal various effects on the result, but it does not identify the optimal option. It just gives information on potential consequences.

不同行业的灵敏度分析

灵敏度分析用于许多行业。一些示例如下：

1. Chemistry:敏感性分析被化学家等科学家使用来确定测量位置。
2. Social Sciences:Econometric models may be developed using sensitivity analysis to forecast economic patterns in the future.
3. 商业：Sensitivity analysis is tool companies use to plan future data flow, allocate resources, and pinpoint critical assumptions.
4. Meta-Analysis:灵敏度分析确定约束是否导致敏感结果，例如团队负责人必须迅速做出的决定。
5. Engineering:Engineers test their designs and models through sensitivity analysis.
6. 环境的：Models for assessing the effects of water purification or the global climate may be developed using sensitivity analysis.

Examples of Sensitivity Analysis

考虑以下灵敏度分析的两个示例：

示例1

Tom is the head of the sales department of ABC corporation that sells air coolers. He knew that the sales would increase during the summer season. This year Tom wants to discover the rise in sales with increased customer traffic.

一个空气冷却器的成本为700美元。去年5月，6月和7月，美国广播公司（ABC Company）出售了200台空气冷却器，带来了140,000美元。

进行敏感性分析后，汤姆确认，夏季客户访问量增加了10％，将导致销售额增加10％。这些数据有助于汤姆（Tom）预测优先考虑额外客户访问的优先级利润。

因此，如果客户访问的百分比上升了25％或50％，他可以预计销售额会大大提高。

示例2

John is a sales executive who wants to understand customer growth in the new resort company he has joined.

从去年的数据开始，他确定当客户群增加20％时，销售额增加了10％。他使用敏感性分析，并理解，如果度假村的客户增加为50％，总销售额应增加25％。

灵敏度分析模板

You may forecast sales income using this sensitivity analysis table template based on input factors like traffic increase, unit pricing, and sales volume changes. In this template, we will use the indirect sensitivity analysis approach.

模板1

Sales volume after a change in the variable = (Previous Sales volume) x (1 + (20% + X)), where X is a value in the sensitivity analysis area of the model.

The above Sensitivity analysis template can be accessedhere。

模板2

使用以下模板显示变更对业务计划的影响。

The above template is availablehere。

Sensitivity Analysis Techniques

The three popular sensitivity techniques are:

1. 龙卷风图
2. Spider Diagram
3. Monte Carlo Simulation

Sensitivity Analysis Vs Scenario Analysis

Sensitivity and scenario analysis are different techniques, although they serve the same purpose (i.e., assessing the risks or impact of changes).

In sensitivity analysis, you change one variable while keeping other variables intact and study the impact of the change on a specific outcome.

In scenario analysis, you can change the complete input scenarios and then alter all variables to align with the new scenario and study the impact of this new scenario on the outcome. Scenario analysis assesses the impact of changing all variables at the same time.

Conclusion

Sensitivity analysis is a good method to identify different outcomes by changing an input variable. You can use this analysis to find risks and opportunities and communicate them to the relevant stakeholders.

利益相关者可以看到优先的选项，然后根据对数据的客观解释做出决策。