Risks are commonly assumed to be the same as uncertainty in the area of风险管理。一种lthough there is a big difference between risk and uncertainty, many professionals often think they are the same.
尽管从PMP或PMI-RMP考试的角度来看，这个概念并不重要，但您必须理解差异以避免混合它们。
Therefore, I’m writing this blog post to explain it and I hope after reading it, you won’t have any problems distinguishing between risk and uncertainty.
Risk
一种风险is an unplanned event that may affect one or some ofyour projectobjectives if it occurs. The risk is positive if it affects your project positively, and it is negative if it affects the project negatively.
负面的否定性和积极因素有单独的风险反应策略。
The objective of a负风险反应策略is to minimize their impact or probability, while the objective of a正风险反应策略is to maximize the chance or impact.
You might also hear two more risk terms: known and unknown. Known risks are identified during the identify risks process and unknown risks are those you couldn’t identify.
一种contingency planis made for known risks, and you will use the contingency reserve to manage them. On the other hand, unknown risks are managed through a解决方法using themanagement reserve。
Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a lack of complete certainty. In uncertainty, the outcome of any event is entirely unknown, and it cannot be measured or guessed; you don’t have any background information on the event.
Uncertainty is not an unknown risk.
In uncertainty, you completely lack the background information of an event, even though it has been identified. In the case of unknown risk, although you have the background information, you missed it during the identify risks process.
一种Real-World Example of Risk and Uncertainty
一种ssume two famous teams consist of renowned players, and they are going to play a football match the next day.
您能告诉我哪支球队将要赢得胜利？
No, you can’t; however, you can make an educated guess by reviewing and analyzing the past performances of each player, the team, and the results of matches they played against each other.
Then you can come up with some numbers like there is a 30% chance of Team A or Team B winning, or there is a 70% possibility of Team A or Team B losing the match.
现在，让我们在不同的情况下进行相同的足球比赛。
Let us say again that two teams are going to play a game, and no players are selected for either team.
在这种情况下，如果有人问您要赢得哪支球队，您的回应将是什么？
You will be clueless because you don’t know which team consists of which players, and you have no idea how the teams will perform.
在这里，即使规则和体育场是相同的，您也没有任何有关过去绩效的信息，也无法预测事件的结果。
这种情况称为不确定性。
Risk Vs Uncertainty
以下是风险和不确定性之间的一些差异：
- In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome, while in uncertainty you cannot.
- 在不确定性无法控制的情况下，可以管理风险。
- Risks can be measured and quantified, while uncertainty cannot.
- You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty, you can’t.
Conclusion
风险和不确定性是不同的术语，但人们倾向于混淆它们。管理风险更容易，因为您可以根据自己的经验来识别它们并制定响应计划。但是，管理不确定性非常困难，因为以前的信息没有可用，涉及太多参数，并且您无法预测结果。
然而,成功完成您的项目,哟u must be very cautious, proactive, and open-minded to manage risks and uncertainty.
这是风险与不确定性职位结束的地方。希望现在您可以将不确定性与风险区分开。仍然有一些疑问，在评论部分中发布它们，我会回复您。
by identifies risk and I must proactive to the uncertainty event by doing this my project will be successfully doing.
You should be proactive in risk management. It will surely help you complete your project successfully.
Mathematically
Risk = an uncertain event if occurs can impact the outcome of event in a positive or negative direction
所以有两个部分
风险=概率 *影响
现在，在概率理论下，事件可以以三种方式发生
1）它将发生（某个事件）prob = 1，撞击您可以根据发现以找到风险输入
2) It may occur ( a probable event, however small it could be, those who talk about unknown unknowns or uncertainties all fall here) the probability could be infinitesimal or we just ignore it as It’s not worth * impact = get the risk value .
3）不会发生（不可能发生的事件，零概率） *影响=无关的风险。
外面没有什么。这些不确定性甚至我们可能不会想到或想象也将属于它，但只担心可能影响我们项目的主要可能事件。
您的生活中有数百万个变量都不确定，甚至震动我们的变量可能有可能，但我们并没有真正考虑每天的风险，但是那些不那么幸运且震惊的人，尽管无限的概率是他们松动的。
Every single event whether known and unknown has a probability of occurrence and it sums up to 1.
现在您选择样品空间是什么？
维诺德说。
对不起,我不同意y的基本定义ou are using. To begin with, uncertainty is an umbrella term to define any known or unknown event or series of events. It encompasses Allowances, Contingency and Risks. Allowances are “known-knowns” whose exact value is not known at the time but whose expenditure is certain to occur. Hence an amount is assigned to this particular cost, and later revisited when additional information becomes available. Contingencies are “known-unknowns,” within the defined project scope. It is a specific provision for unforeseeable elements of cost within the defined project scope, particularly important where previous experience relating estimates and actual costs has shown that unforeseeable events that increase costs are likely to occur (AACEI). Contingency event estimates are made based on experienced judgment from subject matter experts (SMEs)on that estimate. Risks are the “unknown-unknowns” whose probability of occurrence and cost impact is not certain. But even the unknown-unknowns can be estimated by SMEs, based on their experience using Monte Carlo computer models to estimate the probability of occurrence and an estimated value of the impact. The Risk Register is where the risks (or opportunities) are listed and discussed in a Risk Workshop of SMEs, and both qualitative and quantitative descriptions are assigned to each risk element. The risk elements are prioritized, and the SMEs then look for mitigation measures to reduce or eliminate each risk. The residual post-mitigation risks are then used as the basis for the Monte Carlo computer analysis. The analysis will return the calculation that there is a (say) 80% probability that the total cost of the risks will be less than $ X thousand, or other percentages and impact cost depending on the risk estimator’s (or management’s) risk appetite. This amount should be added to the Project Base Cost (which would include Allowances) and the Contingency, defined as the Project Baseline Cost, to arrive at the project funded (or budgeted) cost.
For a more complete treatise on Uncertainty which I co-authored, please read “Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities,” © OECD 2017, NEA No. 7344.
这些定义基于PMBOK指南第五版。bob手机客户端
除非你们已经决定，除非您已经决定项目管理的不确定性定义与其他人类努力（如科学，工程和医学）的定义不同，否则我建议阅读有关该主题的众多书籍中的一些。当然可以测量不确定性，并在严重的领域中使用，以分配结果将在定义范围内发生的概率。
Google uncertainty in science or uncertainty budget
I fear you may have got some of your info from the field of economics (which can make astrology and black magic look bad) ;)
Can you explain it little further:
当然可以测量不确定性，并在严重的领域中使用，以分配结果将在定义范围内发生的概率。
感谢您分享有关风险和不确定性的想法。天使所说的与您正确和简单的想法没有什么不同。差异仅在声明中，但你们俩都表现出了相同的差异。感谢您使我更加清楚这个主题。
In uncertainty you completely lack the historical and pas information. The construction of a house or painting a wall does not fall in this category. Here you can estimate the cost will a good accuracy. Most of the times these contracts are given under fixed price or cost reimbursable.
在风险下，您可以猜测结果，但在不确定性方面做不到。
有人可以告诉我风险和不确定性的关系吗
可以说风险是一个不确定的事件，可以预测和衡量发生发生的机会，而不确定性也可以说是不确定的事件，无法预测和衡量发生的机会。区别在于，可以预测和测量发生风险事件的概率，而不确定性的概率无法预测和测量。
法哈德
我们可以说，应对负面风险的应急计划，而管理储备专用于不确定的问题，因为我们无法猜测它们的影响？
这是一个棘手的问题。
根据我的理解，由于不确定性是确定的风险，因此您可以被动地接受不确定性，并根据受过教育的猜测保留一些应急储备。
我还要求其他访客分享他们对此的想法。
Risk: We don’t know what is going to happen next, but we do know what the distribution looks like.
Uncertainty: We don’t know what is going to happen next, and we do not know what the possible distribution looks like.
Correct….
在我看来，不确定性是不完美的知识。在整个项目中，我们努力提高定义（减少不确定性），以提高成功机会（减少失败的风险）。项目中有关键的不确定性，您必须在做出战略决策之前就必须很好地理解。
Cost estimating is a good example to illustrate uncertainty.It is very difficult (if not impossible) to estimate the final cost of a complex project to the last cent. Do you remember what happened the last your did a remodelling job at your house? If you did not understand the uncertainty well, you may end up regretting the decision of remodeling the kitchen yourself. That is why you do the front end work: develop the scope, prepare the plans, get quotes, etc. it is to reduce uncertainty.
不确定性分析有助于我们了解结果的预期范围和针对项目目标的测试，以做出明智的决定。例如，我们可以测试一个项目是否对各种成本增长方案有弹性，并做出明智的决定来制裁该项目。然后，我们可以表征风险或机会。
很抱歉增加混乱，但我从根本上同意Angel。。
假设我们必须在厨房里画一堵墙。
最初（在计划阶段）我们不确定要使用的油漆量，但可以估计它是一个随机数
We are uncertain of the time it will take to paint the wall .
有风险，石膏会在准备中崩溃。
There is a risk that the paint will bubble after it has been applied.
不确定性是通过研究来管理的，并将Slack投入项目
Negative Risk is managed by process improvement and recovery strategies.
事实，您可能会对发生风险事件的可能性不确定性:)
嗨，法哈德，
您能否帮助提供详细信息/执行定性和定量风险分析的差异？
谢谢，
纳文
在定性风险分析中，您可以通过增加风险的概率和影响来确定风险。在定量风险分析中，您可以数值分析风险。在这里，您会发现每种风险的成本（如果单独发生），然后将其添加以获得对项目的总体影响。
Thanks a lot !!!
在当今项目管理的情况下，风险和不确定性都是不可避免的。一个人必须在中途开车。
Yes, one has to chose the best path suitable to the project.