risk vs uncertainty

风险s are commonly assumed to be the same as uncertainty in the area ofrisk management. Although there is a big difference between risk and uncertainty, many professionals often think they are the same.

Although this concept is not too important from a PMP or PMI-RMP exam point of view, you must understand the difference to avoid mixing them up.

Therefore, I’m writing this blog post to explain it and I hope after reading it, you won’t have any problems distinguishing between risk and uncertainty.

风险

A risk is an unplanned event that may affect one or some ofyour projectobjectives if it occurs. The risk is positive if it affects your project positively, and it is negative if it affects the project negatively.

There are separate risk response strategies for negatives and positives.

The objective of anegative risk response strategy是为了最大程度地减少其影响或概率，而positive risk response strategy是最大化机会或影响。

You might also hear two more risk terms: known and unknown. Known risks are identified during the identify risks process and unknown risks are those you couldn’t identify.

Acontingency planis made for known risks, and you will use the contingency reserve to manage them. On the other hand, unknown risks are managed through aworkaroundusing themanagement reserve.

Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a lack of complete certainty. In uncertainty, the outcome of any event is entirely unknown, and it cannot be measured or guessed; you don’t have any background information on the event.

不确定性不是未知的风险。

In uncertainty, you completely lack the background information of an event, even though it has been identified. In the case of unknown risk, although you have the background information, you missed it during the identify risks process.

A Real-World Example of Risk and Uncertainty

Assume two famous teams consist of renowned players, and they are going to play a football match the next day.

Can you tell me exactly which team is going to win?

不，你不能；但是，您可以通过审查和分析每个球员，团队以及他们相互对抗的比赛结果来做出一个有根据的猜测。

然后，您可以提出一些数字，例如A或B队赢得30％的机会，或者有70％的A或B团队失去比赛的可能性。

Now, let us put the same football match in a different scenario.

Let us say again that two teams are going to play a game, and no players are selected for either team.

In this situation, if somebody asked you which team is going to win, what would your response be?

You will be clueless because you don’t know which team consists of which players, and you have no idea how the teams will perform.

Here, you don’t have any information on past performance, and cannot predict the outcome of the event, even though the rules and the stadium are the same.

This situation is called uncertainty.

风险Vs Uncertainty

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • 在风险中，您可以预测未来结果的可能性，而在不确定性下，您不能。
  • 风险s can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • 可以测量和量化风险，而不确定性则不能。
  • 您可以为风险事件分配概率，而不确定性则不能。

Conclusion

风险and uncertainty are different terms, but people tend to confuse them. Managing risks is easier because you can identify them and develop a response plan based on your experience. However, managing uncertainty is very difficult, as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.

However, to complete your project successfully, you must be very cautious, proactive, and open-minded to manage risks and uncertainty.

这就是风险和不确定性的帖子结束。我何pe now you can distinguish uncertainty from risk. Still have some doubts, post them in the comments section and I will reply to you.